Just published @TheLancet@twitter.com
The largest study of hydroxychloroquine shows a significant increase in death (~35%) and >2-fold increase of serious heart arrhythmias. ~96,000 patients, ~15,000 on HCQ or CQ from 671 hospitals, 6 continents.
This is a retrospective study, and the big question is: why were those people prescribed those drugs in the first place, and people of control group weren’t? This wasn’t a randomized study where you’d take people and randomly put one third of them on a drug, and the other two thirds on another one. No, in this study they took people that were prescribed the drugs and people that weren’t, and compared, without first investigating how different those two groups of people were.
My first guess would be that people who did get those drugs were much more severely ill, and doctors took chances with these drugs to save their lives. And there’s more mortality in that group not because of the drugs, but because those patients were more severe in the first place.
This is exactly why they teach basic statistics in medical schools, and yet you people fall for such papers.
@evgenykuznetsov.org Have you read the paper before calling me "you people"? I think they controlled it quite well and it makes sense in context from what I've heard from people who specialise in heart diseases in respect to both COVID-19 and chloroquine (which is well studied as both a malaria drug and an immuno suppressant).
@evgenykuznetsov.org Nah, it’s all good. Thank you for clarifying. You are probably right and obviously more knowledgable than me. 😅
It do still think they did the best they could in this situation. Randomised trials are obviously not something you’d be doing at that point in the general panic. But I do agree it’s needed. I will link to your explanation from my blog.
It do still think they did the best they could in this situation.
Absolutely, I have no doubt about that. All I’m saying is, as with every medical publication—and every scientifical publication, for that matter—it’s very important to grok what exactly was and wasn’t demonstrated, and what the limitations of the implications are.
@evgenykuznetsov.org I’m trying man. I studied history and politics and dropped out of uni, remember? 😂
Per procrastinatum ad astra